Surging Delta Variant Prompts More Questions
Surging COVID-19 infection due to the Delta variant is reviving arguments about what legislatures, businesses, schools and other organizations should do. The science and (accurate) reporting of events does not precisely guide these decisions.
But what about each of you, and the decisions you make each day? Here is some COVID Q&A based on the best science and reporting we can find (with a nod to Michael Osterholm and the Osterholm Update, the best available information anywhere).
A: Moderna and Pfizer vaccines are truly great but not perfect. 95% means 95%. As of late July 2021, there had been, among the millions of patients who had died or had been hospitalized with COVID-19 infections, 5,914 cases occurring in vaccinated individuals, a very small percentage of hospitalized patients or deaths.
Take any COVID-infected person in the ICU or deceased – that person is 25 times more likely to be an unvaccinated person than a vaccinated person.
So yes, the Moderna and Pfizer vaccines are extraordinarily effective in preventing severe disease and death from COVID-19. Get vaccinated.
A: It’s not a simple answer, but in short, “it depends.” As Dr Osterholm puts it, we would all like to think that once we’re vaccinated, we’re done. In people who are fully vaccinated there are “breakthrough cases,” defined as a positive PCR antigen test for SARS-CoV-2 at 14+ days after their last COVID vaccination. (Up until May 1 of this year the CDC was tracking all breakthrough cases, but since then the focus is on hospitalizations and death.)
There are many other vaccinated people – it is very difficult to know how many – who have been infected but remain well and we also are learning that with infections due to the Delta variant (now, essentially all of the infections happening) those vaccinated yet infected people can spread the virus.
So – being vaccinated and being among other vaccinated people does NOT mean you perfectly safe. It is up to us to protect ourselves. You must decide what level of risk you are willing to accept. If you are going out to eat tonight in a crowded restaurant, and you are double-vaccinated, your risk of being infected is much, much lower than if you were not vaccinated. But there are breakthrough cases, and if you are someone likely to have a severe illness with a COVID infection, you must be mindful of that. If you live with or frequently spend time with someone immunocompromised and likely to have a bad time with COVID, that should figure into your thinking too.
There isn’t a right or wrong answer. We’re just in a very tough spot, AGAIN! But know that there is a right answer in the bigger picture: getting vaccinated is the best way to protect yourself from the severe and deadly Delta COVID infection that awaits so many – mostly unvaccinated people.
A: Booster shots are not yet available, but they are no doubt coming as there is real concern about waning immunity as well as potential for specific protection from newer variants that may threaten the vaccine.
There are legitimate ethical concerns about rich countries mobilizing for third shot while most of the world awaits their first. However, COVID vaccine boosters are coming, with more specific protection against Delta and maybe other even more threatening COVID virus variants.
If you are over 65 and/or have other medical conditions, you will likely end up being recommended for a COVID vaccine booster – just not clear how soon.
A: Everyone is frustrated. This approval would seem to be the ostensible threshold for many people’s decision to get the vaccine. But the CDC has a crucial balancing act to manage. Bending to public pressure to license these products before crucial due diligence could be an unmitigated disaster and permanently undermine Americans’ and the world’s confidence in public health.
We anticipate that current rumblings about major efforts to complete the final approval process will bear fruit in the next four to six weeks, and that approval for a children’s vaccine will follow. Read FDA Final Approval Pfizer Vaccine by September